Authors: Faraedoon Ahmet, Aoife M. Foley, Sean McLoone, Robert J. Best, Dlzar Al Kez

 

Abstract:

The Integrated Single Electricity Market (ISEM) is the wholesale electricity market across the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, and has an ambitious target of 80% renewable energy by 2030. Wind power is expected to play a central role in this transition, but its inherent variability and uncertainty present significant challenges. This study develops a novel electricity market model using PLEXOS, incorporating existing alternating current transmission infrastructure and planned interconnectors with Great Britain and France. The model was validated against 2022 data and extended to evaluate scenarios for 2030, achieving over 80% renewable penetration. Focusing on Northern Ireland, the study examines the role of key technologies, demand response, battery storage, and interconnectors to meet this target. These technologies are evaluated for their complementary contributions to grid flexibility and security under high levels of system non-synchronous penetration. This analysis explores wind power curtailment, CO₂ emissions, electricity generation costs, wholesale prices, net revenues, and optimal interconnection capacities. Findings demonstrate the potential of these technologies to mitigate wind power variability, reduce emissions, and lower costs while maintaining system stability. Insights from this research are critical for transmission system operators to develop strategies and policies supporting the transition to a renewable-dominated grid. This study provides valuable guidance for regions pursuing ambitious renewable energy targets while ensuring grid security and economic efficiency.

 

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