Authors: Alma Ademovic Tahirovic, Hossein Ameli, Goran Strbac

 

Abstract:

Environmental pressures have long driven the shift toward non-fossil fuel alternatives in energy systems. However, the impact of climate change on reliability of renewable sources has received limited attention. Brazil’s energy system, dominated by hydropower (71%), faces increasing strain from prolonged dry conditions and growing peak demand. Only half of this hydro capacity is reservoir-type dispatchable, increasing reliability concerns. While expansions in wind, solar, and natural gas have been pursued, they introduce volatility and logistical complexity, with imposed constraints of domestic reserves and imports. Biomass emerges as a flexible and viable alternative, particularly in decentralized applications. It offers emission reductions and cost savings when derived from locally sourced agricultural residues, in form of biogas and biomethane energy streams. This paper applies the extended Combined Gas and Electricity Network model to assess infrastructure interdependencies and diversification strategies under Brazil’s energy transition. Results show that small-scale biomass, paired with energy efficiency and demand management, enhances resilience. Energy efficiency, despite higher upfront costs, provides long-term savings and emission reductions. The findings highlight the need for diversified, low-emission strategies with energy conservation as the foundation of sustainable development.

 

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