Authors: Mohamed Abuella, Adib Allahham, Nabila Ahmet Rufa’l, Sara Louise Walker

 

Abstract:

This study examines hydrogen-based and alternative strategies for decarbonising residential heating in the North of Tyne (NoT) region, UK, focusing on energy efficiency and conservation. A multi-system-perspective framework integrating scenario analysis and quantitative energy-system modelling is applied to assess socio-technical interventions, technology pathways (heat pumps and hydrogen boilers), and hydrogen-blending levels up to 2050. Monte Carlo simulations and a game-theoretic investment model are used to evaluate energy demand, CO₂ emissions, and system costs. The results show that socio-technical interventions substantially reduce energy demand but are insufficient alone to reach net zero. Hydrogen blending provides modest emission reductions, while full electrification via heat pumps is most cost-effective in the long term, particularly with carbon capture and storage (CCS). A hybrid 50/50 heat pump–hydrogen-boiler pathway with CCS post-2040 presents a practical transition option. The findings highlight the importance of coordinated infrastructure planning and societal engagement for achieving deep heating decarbonisation.

 

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