Authors: Mohamed Abuella , Adib Allahham, Sara Walker

 

Abstract:

Achieving Great Britain’s 2050 net-zero target requires coordinated integration of electricty gas, and hydrogen systems. This paper presents a game-theoretic optimisation framework that evaluates competitive and cooperative investment and operational strategies within a bi-level structure combining long-term planning and short-term operational constraints. The competitive scenario is modelld through a Nash-Cournot equilibrium, while the cooperative scenario applies the Shapley value to ensure a fair allocation of costs and benefits among technologies. Results show that both approaches enable decarbonisation, compared to residual emissions of 8161 tonnes under competition. Competitive strategies favour flexibility technologies such as Power-to-Gas (P2G) (11.7%) and Battery Energy Storage (BESS) (!!.4%), whereas cooperative planning utilises lower flexibility (P2G 3.4%, BESS 4.5%) and greater nuclear baseload (20%-26%). Shaply value analysis quantifies each technology’s marginal contribution, identifying hydrogen technologies as major value drivers, while gas-to-hydrogen reforming with carbon capture and storage (G2G-CCS), biomass, and combined heat and power (CHP) require policy support. When market conditions are not favourable, electricity technologies require between £0.82 and 2.16 million in financial support. The paper findings offer quantitative insights to guide policy development that incentivises collaboration and coordinated planning, supporting a resilient, fair and economically efficient pathway to a net-zero energy system for Great Britain.

 

Full paper available here